A multi-track rail model for estimating journey impacts from extreme weather events: a case study of Great Britain’s rail network

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A multi-track rail model for estimating journey impacts from extreme weather events: a case study of Great Britain’s rail network

Ilalokhoin, Ohis / Pant, Raghav / Hall, Jim W.

Models that have been developed for analysis of the impacts of failure in railway networks have tended to make simplifying assumptions about train paths and delays and have not always accounted for the existence of multiple tracks on a route. In a step towards a more realistic, yet computationally tractable analysis of the disruption of rail services, we present a multi-track rail model that simulates train journeys based on actual pathways and realistic routing decisions and allows for estimation of train delays, disruptions to passengers’ journeys and spatial propagation of disruptions through the rail network. We use this model to analyse examples of weather-related disruptions on Great Britain’s railway. Our model predicts delays with an average error of 7–8% for the windstorm and flood case studies considered. This new model should therefore enhance risk analysis for large rail networks, enabling the prioritization of interventions that could enhance network resilience.