Calculation and interpretation of realistic reliability estimates

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Calculation and interpretation of realistic reliability estimates

Reid, S. G.

The linking of advanced structural analysis and structural reliability analysis provides a basis to calculate ‘realistic’ estimates of structural reliability rather than the ‘notional’ estimates used to develop structural safety standards. The paper discusses two examples of ‘realistic’ reliability assessments for existing land-based structures (bridges), which illustrate aspects of structural reliability modelling that are also relevant to the assessment of offshore structures. One example concerns the calculation of a realistic ‘best estimate’ of the reliability of a critically weakened deteriorating structure, and the other example concerns a general procedure developed for the reliability-based assessment of existing structures that do not comply with current design standards. The realistic reliability estimates are based on different modelling assumptions than conventional (notional) reliability estimates. Important differences between ‘notional’, ‘realistic’ and ‘actuarial’ failure probabilities have been identified in this paper, and implications concerning the interpretation and application of different probabilities have also been discussed.