Aviation Terminal Weather Forecast Study

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Aviation Terminal Weather Forecast Study

J. A. Christopherson

When good weather prevails at an air terminal, air traffic proceeds at a normal level of activity. However, as soon as low cloudiness, fog, smoke or other restrictions to vertical or horizontal visibility occur, serious interruptions in the rate of take-off and landing may ensue. Not only are there delays in the departure and arrival of scheduled commercial aircraft, but increased hazards associated with the control and navigation of all aircraft in the area become important problems. While the prediction of the meteorological elements responsible for these conditions cannot completely eliminate their effects, accurate short range forecasts of the weather at an air terminal can materially assist the aircraft operator and traffic controller to plan for an orderly and safe flow of traffic out of, and into, the airport. In this study, the nature of the meteorological problem and the operational utility of the probability information have suggested the use of a statistical technique whose specific properties are discussed.