Forecasting Trade and the Merchant Fleet

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Forecasting Trade and the Merchant Fleet

B. Weiers / J. Kelleher

The report presents the results of an effort to develop a forecast of the ships required for U.S. oceanborne foreign trade. The ability to accurately identify trends that affect the fleet can provide important information to the U.S. maritime industry. Within an economic framework, the prospects of U.S. maritime foreign trade, future development of seaborne trade, and ships that carry trade are discussed. Principles of trade, factors governing the development of the merchant fleet, past trends, and recent forecasts are examined; implications are drawn regarding the developments to the end of the century and beyond. Nominal fleet forecasts using notional ships are presented to quantify the relationship of trade growth to the need for fleet expansion.