While key Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) technologies have transferred to implementation, reducing today's trajectory uncertainties in planning and executing across National Air Space (NAS) domains continue to be a challenge. Reducing trajectory uncertainty is paramount to achieving TBOs goals of increased throughput, efficient redistribution of necessary delay when demand exceeds capacity, increased predictability of daily operations, and more operator flexibility.To explore future TBO challenges and opportunities across departure, flight time, and arrival demand uncertainties, we evaluated more than 2,000 Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) occurring during 2018 and 2019. Specifically, this paper addresses the uncertainties in planning and executing GDPs through departure and en route flight time conformance analysis, as well as the relationship between conformance and unused capacity. We also present initial results from our new fast-time computer simulation model, which utilizes historical analysis uncertainty distributions to model today’s NAS performance. We plan to use this model to explore future TBO scenarios.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Trajectory Based Operations: Challenges Managing Trajectory Uncertainty


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2021-04-20


    Size :

    4451244 byte





    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





    Challenges in Achieving Trajectory-Based Operations

    Cate, K. / American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2013



    Uncertainty Quantification in Trajectory Prediction for Aircraft Operations

    Sankararaman, Shankar / Daigle, Matthew | AIAA | 2017