Abstract To construct models for hazard prediction from radiation belt particles to satellite electronics, one should know temporal behavior of the particle fluxes. We analyzed 11-year variation in relativistic electron flux (E>2MeV) at geosynchronous orbit using measurements made by GOES satellites during the 23rd sunspot cycle. As it is believed that electron flux enhancements are connected with the high-speed solar wind streams and ULF or/and VLF activity in the magnetosphere, we studied also solar cycle changes in rank order cross-correlation of the outer radiation belt electron flux with the solar wind speed and both interplanetary and on-ground wave intensity. Data from magnetometers and plasma sensors onboard the spacecraft ACE and WIND, as well as magnetic measurements at two mid-latitude diametrically opposite INTERMAGNET observatories were used. Results obtained show that average value of relativistic electron flux at the decay and minimum phases of solar activity is one order higher than the flux during maximum sunspot activity. Of all solar wind parameters, only solar wind speed variation has significant correlation with changes in relativistic electron flux, taking the lead over the latter by 2 days. Variations in ULF amplitude advance changes in electron flux by 3 days. Results of the above study may be of interest for model makers developing forecast algorithms.

Highlights • Correlation of SW speed with relativistic electrons is confirmed for 23rd solar cycle. • ULF waves in the SW and magnetosphere equally correlate with relativistic electron fluxes. • We propose an explanation of closer correlation of electrons with SW speed than with ULF. • A role of small-scale turbulence in the SW for SW-magnetosphere interaction is presumed.