Transit Route Resilience: A Case Study of 10 Bus Routes with Arrival Timetables of Intermediate Stops in Shanghai

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Transit Route Resilience: A Case Study of 10 Bus Routes with Arrival Timetables of Intermediate Stops in Shanghai

Yang, Zelin / Liang, Hailun / Zhou, Xuemei / Yang, Xiaoguang / Xu, Hui

Research on the resilience of public transportation systems has emerged in recent years. Unlike previous research that focused on measuring redundancy at the network level, this paper redefines the concept of resilience from the bus route level. In fact, due to congestion, accidents or vehicle malfunctions, the services of bus routes might be trapped in that “break down” state. However, after the adjustment of some factors, such as experienced drivers, bus signal priority, bus lanes, and services will self-recover. Two performance indicators, called resilience index based on intervals (RII) and resilience index based on routes (RIR), are proposed in this paper. Drawing on data of bus automatic vehicle location and timetables in Shanghai, the resilience of 10 routes can be estimated. Finally, a multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the influencing factors of resilience. Our conclusion is that the length of interval, mileage of the bus lane, road condition, and departure frequency have a significant influence on resilience.