Transport Airplane Risk Analysis

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Transport Airplane Risk Analysis

Violette, M. G. / Safarian, P. / Han, N. / Atmur, R.

Risk analysis is used to identify an unsafe condition in a fleet of transport-category airplanes and to evaluate whether a proposed course of corrective action will be effective in mitigating the risk. One key element of the risk assessment is the uncorrected fleet risk, which estimates the fatalities that may occur over the remaining life of the fleet if no corrective action is taken. The uncorrected fleet risk incorporates the number of airplanes that are expected to develop damage such as cracking, whether the damage is likely to be detected over the life of the airplane, the probability that the damage will lead to an unsafe outcome such as a crash, in-flight breakup, runway departure, or individual fatality, and the historic fatality rate of the unsafe outcome. This paper presents tools that have been developed to perform the risk analysis in accordance with existing Federal Aviation Administration Orders and Policy Statements. An example analysis demonstrates the method and tools for calculating uncorrected fleet risk and illustrates the relative significance of the parameters involved in the calculation.