Energy is key to economic development and its sustainable supply is therefore crucial for our future. In the coming decades world energy consumption will grow strongly in both developing and developed economies. This paper describes how different drivers do combine to create a platform for maturing a wide range of energy supply technologies for the worlds' needs for mobility and power. A broadened supply base creates the necessary options for both economic growth and 'greening' of the energy base towards sustainability. The supply base of energy is extended through a combination of four key drivers: energy efficiency, carbon efficiency, sustainability of energy supply and customer choice. These drivers combine to progress existing technological solutions but more importantly, they lead to paradigm changes that will alter generation and use of energy. A spectrum of technological innovations is developing commercial scope, which puts them firmly on experience curves towards full competitiveness. Solar, wind, fuel cells, photovoltaics, electric cars, all available commercially today, can lead the way to a fully sustainable energy infrastructure. Considerable progress in photovoltaics and wind energy drive these technologies fast down experience curves that make them already today, on a limited, selective basis viable alternatives to hydrocarbon based power generation. Novel, efficient cars are developed and the hydrogen fuelled electric vehicle starts to become a serious proposition. The dynamics are however very complex. Time constants are long; it will take 20 to 30 years before redirection of the very, very large energy market will become significant. The economic environment is decisively dependent on government regulation either through taxes, subsidies or legislation. Periodic short-term dips in the price of the marginal energy supply sources, crude oil in particular, hamper the commitment to and the investments in the development of new forms of energy supply. Strong and consistent support by government policies is fundamental to make the declared target of significant substitution of fossil energy by renewables by the middle of this century an achievable goal.
Energy supply for mobility and power - a rapidly changing world
2000
31 Seiten, 26 Bilder, 28 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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