Cause-specific investigation of primary delays of Wuhan

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Cause-specific investigation of primary delays of Wuhan–Guangzhou HSR

Wen, Chao / Li, Zhongcan / Huang, Ping / Lessan, Javad / Fu, Liping / Jiang, Chaozhe

This paper presents the results of acase study on the causes and effects of typical service disruptions in aHigh-speed rail (HSR) system in China–Wuhan–Guangzhou High-speed railway (WH-GZ HSR). With acause-specific approach, seven delay causalities leading to primary delays (PDs) are identified, and the properties and consequences of each primary delay (PD) factor is derived. The comparison of candidate distributional forms shows that the Log-normal distribution model can approximate better the length of all identified PDs. For each PD cause, the distribution of delay duration is estimated and tuned. Next, cause-specific distributional models for PDs severity are discussed. The models for the number of affected trains are presented in the form of inverse regression models with specific domains. Then, comparing five different kinds of candidate models, the results show that the Cubic is the best to approximate the distributions of total-affected time.