Analysis of Space Launch Vehicle Failures and Post-Mission Disposal Statistics

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Analysis of Space Launch Vehicle Failures and Post-Mission Disposal Statistics

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Fernández, Lucía Ayala / Wiedemann, Carsten / Braun, Vitali

In a time in which a significant number of launch vehicles are being developed, boosted by numerous new space actors demanding cheaper access to space, the need to ensure the reliability of launch vehicles and the performance of a successful Post-Mission Disposal (PMD) is undeniable. The first step to ensure the reliability of new launch vehicles is to analyse previous launch failures, learning from past mistakes. In this paper, the launch failures that occurred over the past 16 years are analysed. These failures are classified as a function of the subsystems involved in the failure, as well as the phase of the mission in which the failure occurred. As a result, the most critical subsystems are identified for every mission phase. Subsequently, the most critical subsystem is further investigated, and its most critical components are identified. Furthermore, aiming to improve the present PMD practices, an understanding of the current status is necessary. This paper provides an overview of the evolution in terms of mean orbital lifetime of the rocket bodies launched since the year 2000. Moreover, the number of manoeuvres performed and the orbital lifetime saved by these manoeuvres is analysed between 2016 and 2020, further classifying the statistics by launcher family and country.