Role of Electric Vehicles in the Nation's Energy Future

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Role of Electric Vehicles in the Nation's Energy Future

J. G. Asbury / J. G. Seay / W. J. Walsh

This report examines the role of the electric vehicle (EV) in meeting future transportation needs. First, the transportation fuel outlook is described in terms of historical and projected trends regarding the nation's dependence on foreign oil, and the future costs of domestic substitutes for petroleum, including oil from shale and methanol from coal, are estimated and compared. Then, an economic comparison of the EV with the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, the latter fueled with energy from domestic sources, is presented. Battery ''break-even'' cost and performance requirements are established, along with the prospects for meeting them through candidate battery technologies. An analysis of requirements is carried out for commuter cars, family compacts, delivery vans, and full-performance automobiles. Because advanced batteries will be more powerful and compact than today's traction batteries, EV acceleration, passenger comfort, and safety will soon match those of ICE vehicles. However, range is inherently expensive for EVs, and commercial EV markets will likely focus on applications requiring ranges of less than 200 miles. The EV represents an important long-run transportation alternative for the United States, and its impact on the nation's electrical supply system will be modest. (ERA citation 11:011493)