Optimal Arrangement of Missile Defense Systems Considering Kill Probability

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Optimal Arrangement of Missile Defense Systems Considering Kill Probability

Na, Hyungho / Lee, Jin-Ik

This paper proposes an optimal arrangement framework of ballistic missile defense systems, such as a launcher and radar to maximize the survivability of protected assets. In order to solve the optimization problem through a probabilistic approach, we derive a single shot kill probability (SSKP) model based on engagement geometries, trajectory characteristic of an interceptor and a ballistic missile, and error models embedded in both an interceptor and radar. This SSKP model is useful to predict a performance of defense systems in early design phase or to draw requirements of subsystems. After an SSKP model is derived, we present a framework to calculate the survivability of protected assets. In the framework, we establish a concept of survivability distributions of the protected assets, which vary with the arrangement of defense systems. By using the survivability distributions for given protected assets, the optimal location of a launcher and radar can be derived. The potential significance of the proposed framework is that it can be directly applicable in real defense systems by just substituting SSKP models derived in this paper with more sophisticatedly derived SSKP distributions. Finally, the optimal arrangements are derived by the proposed framework and the effectiveness of the results is evaluated through various case studies.