Bus arrival time prediction method and device
Bus arrival time prediction method and device
- New search for: YAO XINXIN
- New search for: LI FENG
- New search for: HUANG ZHENGHUA
- New search for: XU HUI
- New search for: TIAN CHANGQING
- New search for: XIAO DANDAN
- New search for: MA PENGFEI
- New search for: YAO XINXIN
- New search for: LI FENG
- New search for: HUANG ZHENGHUA
- New search for: XU HUI
- New search for: TIAN CHANGQING
- New search for: XIAO DANDAN
- New search for: MA PENGFEI
The invention provides a bus arrival time prediction method and device, and belongs to the technical field of bus arrival time prediction. Historical operation data and real-time operation data are obtained through a vehicle-mounted network connection terminal and a mobile communication network, a bus arrival moment prediction model based on an XGBoost model is established, the model is trained and tested by adopting vehicle historical data, a combination of an average absolute error and a regular term is adopted as a score function, and a prediction result is obtained. Performing parameter tuning on the bus arrival time prediction model through a cross validation mode, thereby obtaining a bus arrival time prediction model with relatively high precision; vehicle operation data are input into the bus arrival time prediction model, so that the predicted time when the bus arrives at the target station can be more accurate.
本发明提供了一种公交到站时刻预测方法及装置，属于公交到站时刻预测技术领域。通过车载网联终端和移动通信网络，获取历史运行数据和实时运行数据，建立基于XGBoost模型的公交到站时刻预测模型，采用车辆历史数据对其进行训练和测试，并采用平均绝对误差和正则项的组合作为得分函数，通过交叉验证的方式对公交到站时刻预测模型进行参数调优，从而得到精确度较高的公交到站时刻预测模型；将车辆运行数据输入该公交到站时刻预测模型，可以使预测出的公交车到达目标站点的预测时刻更加准确。
Document information
Bus arrival time prediction method and device
一种公交到站时刻预测方法及装置
2023-06-13
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
| IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES |
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