Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040

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Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040

Matthias, Volker / Bieser, Johannes / Mocanu, Tudor / Pregger, Thomas / Quante, Markus / Ramacher, Martin O.P. / Seum, Stefan / Winkler, Christian

Abstract

Highlights • A novel model chain was built up for producing gridded traffic emissions in Germany. • The model chain was used to create emissions in 2010 and future scenarios for 2040. • NOx emissions from traffic are expected to decrease by approximately 80% until 2040.

Abstract In the German project Traffic Development and the Environment an advanced model chain was built up that includes traffic models, fleet composition developments, new driving technologies, and emission factors in order to produce spatio-temporal emission distributions for use in atmospheric chemistry transport models. This novel model chain was first used to calculate current day traffic emissions in Germany and then to develop consistent future scenarios for 2040. In all scenarios, NOx emissions from traffic decrease by approximately 80% while PM emissions show a lower reduction. The scenarios Free Play, which is based on a free market economics logic, and Regulated Shift, which considers stricter environmental regulations, represent large differences in traffic emissions. NOx emissions will be 32% lower and PM emissions 13% lower in the Regulated Shift scenario compared to the Free Play. The data can be combined with other anthropogenic emissions for investigating air quality with chemistry transport models.

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Document information

Title :

Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040

Contributors:

Matthias, Volker (author) / Bieser, Johannes (author) / Mocanu, Tudor (author) / Pregger, Thomas (author) / Quante, Markus (author) / Ramacher, Martin O.P. (author) / Seum, Stefan (author) / Winkler, Christian (author)

Published in:

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment ; 87

Publication date :

2020-01-01

ISSN :

1361-9209

DOI :

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102536

Type of media :

Article (Journal)

Type of material :

Electronic Resource