Resilience assessment of strait/canal: A rule-based Bayesian network framework

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Resilience assessment of strait/canal: A rule-based Bayesian network framework

Fan, Hanwen / Gong, Xiaoxing / Lyu, Jing

Abstract Straits and canals are frequently exposed to various risks, ranging from maritime shipping accidents to piracy and military conflicts. To analyze the performance of these key nodes under disruptions, this study proposes a framework to assess their resilience performance and identifies the crucial influencing factors. We introduce a pioneering model that incorporates fuzzy logic, Bayesian networks, and the utility value theory. Moreover, the model considers both internal and external exposure perspectives for the first time. Sensitivity analysis was introduced to ensure the accuracy of the framework, and the Shapley value method was applied to analyze the key attributes influencing resiliency performance from a game theory perspective. The results showed that the Strait of Malacca achieved comparatively higher resiliency scores and that the weaknesses of each strait were inconsistent. The results provide empirical evidence for resilience assessment in uncertain environments and valuable insights for stakeholders to develop effective policies and plans.