Estimating economic and resilience consequences of potential navigation infrastructure failures: A case study of the Monongahela River

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Estimating economic and resilience consequences of potential navigation infrastructure failures: A case study of the Monongahela River

DiPietro, Gwen Shepherd / Scott Matthews, H. / Hendrickson, Chris T.

Highlights • We model logistic responses and revenue losses after failure of a key dam and lock. • New markets will emerge in response to an extended river closure. • Mines and utilities with access to multiple modes of transport will adapt readily. • Facilities that are completely reliant on barge shipments will struggle. • Local annual revenue losses are comparable to the cost of infrastructure rehabilitation.

Abstract The paper examines the potential effects of failure of heavily used, outdated locks and dams on the Monongahela River in southwestern Pennsylvania. Catastrophic failure would result in lengthy outage of barge traffic. The displaced volume of coal shipments from mines to power plants is estimated using Energy Information Administration survey data. The resilience of the impacted facilities, the viability of their shipping alternatives, and their ability to re-organize into new markets is assessed. Lost revenues are estimated for facilities that close due to an inability to adapt, as well as the replacement cost of towboats and barges trapped by a catastrophic and sudden failure. The aggregate costs to these facilities as a result of a year-long closure are estimated at $0.56-1.7 billion.