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Highlights Swedish air travel per capita need to be reduced by 38–59% to meet climate targets. The effect on air travel by a high-speed rail network in Northern Europe is modest. Mixed modes, combining rail and air, may give significant emission reductions. The main aviation low-carbon fuels alternatives are analysed.
Abstract In many industrialised countries, the climate impact from long-distance travel is greater than that from short-distance travel. In this paper, we present five scenarios for long-distance travel in 2060, which are consistent with a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees. The scenarios concern travel by the Swedish population, but per capita travel volume and fuel use could be generalised globally. A key result is that all scenarios require reductions in Swedish per capita air travel in the range of 38–59% compared to 2017. The direct effect on air travel of implementing a high-speed rail network in Sweden and Northern Europe was found to be modest. A higher emission reduction could be achieved if mixed mode trips comprising rail and air legs were more widely adopted. Finally, the pros and cons of future aviation fuels are discussed, the main candidates being biofuel, electrofuel, and liquid hydrogen.
Low-carbon scenarios for long-distance travel 2060
2021-01-01
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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