On the conflict frequency at air route intersections

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On the conflict frequency at air route intersections

Schmidt, David K.

Abstract Past studies have developed models for the expected number of perceived overtake and crossing conflicts between aircraft based on route geometry, separation criteria, aircraft velocities, flow rates and controller perception considerations. The frequency of overtake and crossing conflicts, furthermore were assumed to be approximately Poisson distributed. In this paper previous results have been extended, and the number of crossing conflicts, at route intersections or route transitions, is shown to be expressable as a random sum of correlated random variables. This allows for a detailed derivation of the variance and an approximate probability distribution for the number of crossing conflicts. Results indicate that the variance of the conflict frequency may be considerably larger than that obtained by the Poisson assumption, a fact that could explain some of the appreciable variability in air traffic controller work load. A numerical example is included with results compared to those of a numerical simulation of intersection conflicts.