ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF EXPORT VOLUME ON INFLATION BY USING CONTAINER TRAFFIC: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

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ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF EXPORT VOLUME ON INFLATION BY USING CONTAINER TRAFFIC: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

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Doğa Ece Çokluk / Meltem Şan

Abstract: Inflation has been the subject of many studies as a principal factor that rapidly decreases social welfare, especially in developing countries. For this reason, determining which factors affect inflation is important for the effectiveness of the policies implemented in the fight against inflation. In this study, we aimed to determine whether an increase in exports affects inflation based on exported container traffic, which mostly includes high value-added cargoes. We applied a two-way Granger causality analysis because the opposite relationship between the variables could theoretically be possible. We used 228 monthly observations covering the period between January 2004 and December 2022. The results showed that there is a unidirectional causality between export container traffic and inflation. A positive shock in exports generates a negative shock in inflation, and this shock remains in the system for about 10 months, while the change in inflation is mostly caused by its own past values. This situation shows that exports are effective in reducing inflation by providing foreign currency to the country, but the expectations of an increase in inflation must be broken to a considerable extent for the reducing policies to be effective.