Influence of the human development index, motorcycle growth and policy intervention on road traffic fatalities

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Influence of the human development index, motorcycle growth and policy intervention on road traffic fatalities – A case study of Vietnam

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An Minh Ngoc / Chu Cong Minh / Nguyen Thi Nhu / Hiroaki Nishiuchi / Nathan Huynh

Motorcycle ownership in Vietnam has increased exponentially during the last two decades. As a result, traffic congestion, emissions, and traffic safety have been on the rise. Of particular concern is the significant increase in the number of traffic accidents due to higher traffic volume that is stimulated by economic development and improved households’ economic mobility. During this time frame, many programs, such as traffic safety awareness campaign, have been developed and implemented by transportation agencies to reduce traffic fatalities. This study seeks to understand the long-term effect of policy intervention on traffic fatalities. This is accomplished by developing a log-linear regression model which the response variable is the number of traffic fatalities between 1990 and 2019 and the independent variables include Human Development Index (HDI), motorcycle ownership, and policy interventions. The model estimation results indicate that: (1) a higher degree of economic development (HDI) corresponds to lower traffic fatalities, (2) the motorcycle helmet law has lowered the number of annual traffic fatalities since its enactment, and (3) a higher number of motorcycle trips corresponds to a higher number of traffic fatalities. Based on this study’s findings, it is recommended that transportation agencies in Vietnam develop and promote an alternative transportation mode.