Agent-based simulation for market diffusion of passenger cars and motorcycles BEV in Greater Jakarta Area

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Agent-based simulation for market diffusion of passenger cars and motorcycles BEV in Greater Jakarta Area

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Nugroho, Rizqi Ilma / Gnann, Till / Speth, Daniel / Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu / Hanafi, Jessica / Soehodho, Sutanto

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) present a promising approach to decarbonizing the transportation sector. This extends beyond electric passenger cars, such as electric motorcycles that hold significant potential in emerging markets with high population density and income disparities. However, providing access to infrastructure remains a challenge in increasing BEV adoption. This research endeavours to determine BEV passenger cars (BEV-PC) and motorcycles (BEV-MC) market diffusion within an emerging market city, focusing on the Greater Jakarta Area, utilizing an Agent-Based Model that considers charging infrastructure availability. Findings indicate that BEV-PC diffusion could attain about 9% of the total vehicle stock by 2030 and almost 75% by 2050 under the Current Policy. Similarly, BEV-MC adoption rates may reach 39% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. Introducing a vehicle purchase subsidy along with full abolishment of fossil fuel subsidies could amplify the diffusion of BEV-PC and BEV-MC to almost triple and double in 2030, respectively.

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Title :

Agent-based simulation for market diffusion of passenger cars and motorcycles BEV in Greater Jakarta Area

Contributors:

Nugroho, Rizqi Ilma (author) / Gnann, Till (author) / Speth, Daniel (author) / Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu (author) / Hanafi, Jessica (author) / Soehodho, Sutanto (author)

Published in:

Working paper sustainability and innovation ; no. S 2024, 05

Publication date :

2024

Size :

1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten)

Remarks:

Illustrationen

DOI :

https://doi.org/10.24406/publica-2986

Type of media :

Report