Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models
Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models
- Neue Suche nach: Srinivasan, Karthik K.
- Neue Suche nach: Bhargavi, P.
- Neue Suche nach: Srinivasan, Karthik K.
- Neue Suche nach: Bhargavi, P.
Abstract The rapid and continuing changes in travel and mobility needs in India over the last decade necessitates the development and use of dynamic models for travel demand forecasting rather than cross-sectional models. In this context, this paper investigates mode choice dynamics among workers in Chennai city, India over a period of five years (1999–2004). Dynamics in mode choice is captured at four levels: exogenous variable change, state-dependence, changes in users’ sensitivity to attributes, and unobserved error terms. The results show that the dynamic models provide a substantial improvement (of over 500 log-likelihood points and $ ρ^{2} $ increases from 44% to 68%) over the cross-sectional model. The performance was compared using two illustrative policy scenarios with important methodological and practical implications. The results indicate that cross-sectional models tend to provide inflated estimates of potential improvement measures. Improving the Level of Service (LOS) alone will not produce the anticipated benefits to transit agencies, as it fails to overcome the persistent inertia captured in the state-dependence factors. The results and models have important applications in the context of growing motorization and congestion management in developing countries.
Dokumentinformationen
Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models
Transportation ; 34 , 3
2007
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
| BKL: | 74.75$jVerkehrsplanung$jVerkehrspolitik / 55.80$jVerkehrswesen$jTransportwesen: Allgemeines / 55.80 Verkehrswesen, Transportwesen: Allgemeines / 74.75 Verkehrsplanung, Verkehrspolitik |
Ähnliche Titel
Jointly Estimated Cross-Sectional Mode Choice Models: Specification and Forecast Performance
| British Library Online Contents | 2002
Jointly Estimated Cross-Sectional Mode Choice Models: Specification and Forecast Performance
| Online Contents | 2002
Choice set variability and contextual heterogeneity in work trip mode choice in Chennai city
| Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2019
Commute mode choice dynamics: Accounting for day-to-day variability in longer term change
| DOAJ | 2016