Comet and asteroid hazard to the terrestrial planets

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Comet and asteroid hazard to the terrestrial planets

Ipatov, S.I. / Mather, J.C.

AbstractWe estimated the rate of comet and asteroid collisions with the terrestrial planets by calculating the orbits of 13,000 Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) and 1300 resonant asteroids and computing the probabilities of collisions based on random-phase approximations and the orbital elements sampled with a 500 years step. The Bulirsh–Stoer and a symplectic orbit integrator gave similar results for orbital evolution, but may give different collision probabilities with the Sun. A small fraction of former JCOs reached orbits with aphelia inside Jupiter's orbit and some reached Apollo orbits with semi-major axes less than 2 AU, Aten orbits and inner-Earth orbits (with aphelia less than 0.983 AU) and remained there for millions of years. Though less than 0.1% of the total, these objects were responsible for most of the collision probability of former JCOs with Earth and Venus. We conclude that a significant fraction of near-Earth objects could be extinct comets that came from the trans-Neptunian region or most of such comets disintegrated during their motion in near-Earth object orbits.