Mass Rapid Transit Ridership Forecast Based on Direct Ridership Models: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

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Mass Rapid Transit Ridership Forecast Based on Direct Ridership Models: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

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Ruili Guo / Zhengdong Huang

Many large cities rely on Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) to increase passenger mobility. For efficiency, MRT stations should be arranged to attract maximal number of travelers. It is therefore important to develop methods for estimating MRT ridership forecasting models, which are important for policies on land use development or new MRT lines. Direct ridership models (DRMs) at the station level are superior in estimating the benefits of transit-oriented development policies. In this paper, a principal component regression (PCR) is proposed to overcome the issue of multicollinearity that widely occurs in multivariate regression analyses for DRM modeling, especially the ordinary least squares regression. Based on the analysis of 72 MRT stations in Wuhan, China, four principal components are obtained to explain the potential linkage to MRT ridership, which include built-environment related factors, jobs-housing spatial structure related factors, station attributes, and the large compound. Nineteen significant determinants have been identified, among which the four factors of office building area, land use mix, the number of restaurants, and financial institutions are the most influential factors. Built-environment-related factors exert more significant impact on MRT ridership than others. The distance to city center and the number of bus lines around stations have negative association with MRT demand. The proposed PCR-based DRM provides insights for forecasting transit demand brought about by new metro lines and forecasting the consequences of land use development.