Effects of Travel Time Reliability and Commodity Characteristics on Hinterland Leg Transportation of Export Containers

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Effects of Travel Time Reliability and Commodity Characteristics on Hinterland Leg Transportation of Export Containers

Zhang, Rong / Jian, Wenliang / Li, Lu

Increasing the mode share of railway in hinterland leg containers transportation requires a better understanding about the effects of critical factors on shippers’ mode choices. This paper focuses on the effects of travel time reliability (TTR) and commodity characteristics on freight mode choice. A two-stage survey is conducted in the Yiwu-Port of Ningbo corridor, China, to collect shippers’ preference data. Five model specifications are estimated using these data. Estimation results of generic parameters indicate that significant interaction effects between commodity characteristics and travel time exist. The value of generic reliability was then calculated and the effects of commodity characteristics was quantified. In addition, mode-specific values of reliability are estimated. Remarkable differences are found in the mode-specific value of reliability for different modes. Also, the effects of mode-specific value of reliability on the demand forecasting were investigated. Results imply that the mode share of railway will be underestimated if the mode-specific value of reliability is neglected, especially when travel time of railway transportation is reliable. Therefore, it is recommended that the mode-specific willingness-to-pay should be considered in railway demand forecasting and project appraisals.