Predicting the Future Capacity and Dimensions of Container Ships

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Predicting the Future Capacity and Dimensions of Container Ships

Garrido, Javier / Saurí, Sergi / Marrero, África / Gül, Ümit / Rúa, Carles

Since the introduction of the container ship, there has been an impressive increase in its use to take advantage of economies of scale. In the last two decades, the capacity of vessels has trebled. Currently, vessels of 23,000 TEU (20-ft equivalent unit) sail the seas. With the exponential growth experienced in this sector, the question arises if it is possible to reach a peak capacity, as has occurred with bulk cargo vessels and, recently, aircraft. This paper aims to predict the possible size and dimensions of a new generation of mega container ships. Based on economies of scale, port infrastructure, demand, environmental trends, and naval design criteria, the limit to ship size has been estimated. The results suggest that additional increases in ship size are still possible. The aim of this study is to help port authorities to understand the needs of the shipping container industry and to calculate the expansion and investment necessary.