Foundations 2025: A value model for evaluating future air and space forces

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Foundations 2025: A value model for evaluating future air and space forces

Parnell, G.S. / Conley, H.W. / Jackson, J.A. / Lehmkuhl, L.J. / Andrew, J.M.

Air Force 2025 was a study directed by the Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force to identify key system concepts and technologies for achieving air and space dominance in the year 2025. The study was a large effort in which over 200 military experts participated for more than one year. A Value-Focused Thinking model was developed, which was used to evaluate which futuristic system concepts have the greatest potential to ensure future U.S. air and space dominance. The value model was named Foundations 2025 because it represented a return to the basics of air and space dominance. The 'silver standard' approach was used for value hierarchy development. The participants identified key verbs to describe tasks that must be performed in 2025 to ensure air and space dominace. The value hierarchy was developed bottom-up by aggregating these verbs into higher order tasks using affinity diagrams. Using the value hierarchy, multiattribute decision analysis techniques were used to develop an additive value model with 134 attributes. The Foundations 2025 value model was successfully used to score 43 futuristic system concepts and provide insights about the most promising system concepts and technologies. The analysis results directly supported the study director and the senior leadership of the United States Air Force.