Rationale for converting the US transportation system to methanol fuel

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Rationale for converting the US transportation system to methanol fuel

Larsen, R.P. / Santini, D.J.

An alternative fuel eventually suitable for a large part of the transportation system should be introduced into the U.S. market on a large scale by the mid-1990s. A necessarily long transition must be carefully planned to avoid rapidly increasing fuel prices; dwindling domestic oil supplies; and overdependence on the Mideast, a geographically concentrated and potentially unreliable fuel source. This paper summarizes the growing evidence that supports methanol as the preferred alternative fuel. This evidence is now sufficiently compelling to make the risk of starting a transition to this fuel lower than the risk of failing to do so. In spite of the short-term oil glut and because of long-run oil depletion trends, the U.S. government should implement a smooth transition to methanol fuel. The benefits associated with making this transition are described, and estimates are given of the aggregate benefit to the U.S. economy. Finally, arguments are presented for appropriate involvement of the federal government in the transition, given the possible repercussions if the lessons of history are not heeded.