Cost Overruns in Russian Transport Megaprojects

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Cost Overruns in Russian Transport Megaprojects

Pyataev, Maksim

The article presents the results of comparing the estimated cost with the actual costs of a number of large-scale transportation projects that have been implemented in Russia. The conclusion about the necessity of system analysis in evaluating the efficiency of such projects is made. The conclusion is that the external environment makes significant adjustments in any project, especially the large-scale one, which involves many aspects: economic, ecological, political, technological, demographic and others. Projects of such type are mainly financed from public funds, as they are of public importance, and those who promote them are not always interested in the accuracy of forecast values of the project. Mechanisms of responsibility regulation are absent, and institutional environment is not ready for error-free efficiency forecasting, there are no examples of successful practice in this direction. In the course of the study, the author concludes that the statistics of cost overruns in Russian transport projects corresponds to the global practice. The author concludes that it is not necessary to use the system analysis to assess the effectiveness of large-scale projects, because the problem of assessment is poorly structured to take into account quantitative and qualitative project parameters.