Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation

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Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation

Kithmal Wickramasinghe, Navinda / Nakamura, Yoichi / Senoguchi, Atsushi

Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) require accurate aircraft performance estimations with high-quality weather information to initiate a paradigm shift. This paper contributes by quantitatively investigating the effect of numerical weather prediction (NWP) accuracy on aircraft performance estimation. Nowcast/forecast of wind and temperature acquired from Local Forecast (LFM), Meso Scale (MSM), and Global Spectral (GSM) models were compared over a series of ADS-B data on three domestic flight routes. In the second phase, fast-time simulations were used to simulate several tactical and strategic air traffic management applications by calculating the flight time and fuel consumption over a cruise flight segment. Several flight levels corresponding to a year worth of weather data with feasible nowcast/forecast combinations were considered. The results showed that wind forecast deviations increase with the update cycle time and forecast horizon, and record up to 6 m/s compared with LFM nowcasts. Time thresholds were defined to investigate the impact on aircraft performance estimations, and the results revealed that LFM forecasts are feasible for applications with short-temporal forecast requirements. Also, just over 50% in total estimates were eligible for meeting the performance standards in terms of long-temporal strategies with MSM/GSM forecasts. Overall results elaborated the importance of a tailored approach for applying NWP data in future ATM operational strategies.

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Dokumentinformationen

Titel :

Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation

Weitere Titelangaben:

Lect. Notes Electrical Eng.

Beteiligte:

Lee, Sangchul (Herausgeber:in) / Han, Cheolheui (Herausgeber:in) / Choi, Jeong-Yeol (Herausgeber:in) / Kim, Seungkeun (Herausgeber:in) / Kim, Jeong Ho (Herausgeber:in) / Kithmal Wickramasinghe, Navinda (Autor:in) / Nakamura, Yoichi (Autor:in) / Senoguchi, Atsushi (Autor:in)

Kongress:

Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Aerospace Technology ; 2021 ; Korea (Republic of) November 15, 2021 - November 17, 2021

Erschienen in:

The Proceedings of the 2021 Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Aerospace Technology (APISAT 2021), Volume 2 ; Kapitel : 56 ; 755-770

Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering ; 913

Erscheinungsdatum :

2022-09-30

Format / Umfang :

16 pages

ISBN :

978-981-19-2635-8 , 978-981-19-2634-1

ISSN :