Why is the rate of annual road fatalities increasing? A unit record analysis of New Zealand data (2010

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Why is the rate of annual road fatalities increasing? A unit record analysis of New Zealand data (2010–2017)

Walton, Darren / Jenkins, Dan / Thoreau, Roselle / Kingham, Simon / Keall, Michael

Highlights • New Zealand’s crash statistics are 49% higher than those achieved in 2013. • Twenty-one factors are modelled for four years before and four years after 2013. • Three factors are identified: (1) alcohol, (2) learner licences, and (3) Auckland. • Findings point to a systemic failure of detection and prosecution of offending.

Abstract Introduction Recent increases in road crashes have reversed New Zealand’s formerly declining crash rates to produce annual fatal and serious injury counts that are 49% higher than the lowest rates achieved in 2013. Method: We model twenty-one factors in fatal and serious injury crashes, four years before and after 2013 using logistic regression. Three major factors are significantly different in the period after 2013, when crash rates increased: (1) alcohol as a cause, (2) learner licence holders, and (3) a regional effect for Auckland. Newly defined speed zones are a more common setting for crashes in the period of upturn but there is no coinciding elevated likelihood of ‘speed as a causal factor’. Three factors related to road safety were less common: aged under 25-years old, fatigue, and not wearing a seatbelt. Results: Results are compared to rates of prosecutions for alcohol-related driving offences over this period. It is possible that New Zealand’s successful road safety initiatives of the past have been undermined by reduced levels of enforcement and an unexpected outcome from the graduated driving licence system.