What comes next after recession? – Airline industry scenarios and potential end games

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What comes next after recession? – Airline industry scenarios and potential end games

Franke, Markus / John, Florian

Abstract While airline managers learned lessons from the 2001/2003 “double dip” economic crisis, the post 2008 downturn has been more extreme. Airlines reacted quickly in 2008 and adjusted capacities and cost levels but recovery in profits has been slow for many airlines. The dynamics of the downturn has enlarged the gap between successful and less successful business models, and fostered shakeouts of the latter. Furthermore, the occurrence of new business models has accelerated. In 2001, it was the European continental low cost model; this time, we may see new attempts to change the rules of the game in international long-haul traffic. Long-term non-cyclical trends such as deregulation or consolidation will also shape potential end game scenarios, We briefly examine the differences between the last (2001/03) and the recent (2008/09) aviation crises, and evaluate the impact on different types of carriers.

Research highlights ► The paper contrasts the effects on European airlines of the post-2008 economic recessions with previous severe economic downturns. ► The analysis indicates that airlines were better prepared for the impacts on the demands for their services after in the post-2008 recession than they were for the post 2001 down-turn. ► The impacts of the recent recession are found to differ between airline types. ► Scenario analysis provides insights into the likely successful approaches for handling recessions.