Abstract One of the advantages of Arctic shipping or the Northern Sea Route (NSR) over the traditional Suez Canal Route (SCR) is its comparatively shorter transport distance between the Atlantic and the Pacific, which makes North East Asia and North Europe seemingly closer geographically and economically. The economic development of the North-East Asia brings further potential for the commercial applications of the NSR. Meanwhile, China's "Belt and Road" Initiative (BRI), the Railway Transport between China and Europe (Railway) has also been developing rapidly. This has led to the possibility of route competition among the NSR, the SCR and the Railway in freight transport between East Asia and Western Europe. In this paper, the market shares of the three transport routes are analyzed using bootstrapped multinomial logit (MNL) model. Further, scenario analysis is provided to examine the change of market share of the NSR under varying development trends related to economic conditions, natural conditions, and shippers' preference. Based on the results, policy implications and suggestions are discussed.

Highlights • Route competition among the NSR, the SCR and the Railway in freight transport between East Asia and Western Europe analyzed. • The market shares among the NSR, the SCR and the Railway in freight transport between East Asia and Western Europe three transport routes are analyzed using multinomial logit (MNL) model. • Scenario analysis is provided to examine the change of market share of the NSR under varying development trends related to economic conditions, natural conditions, and shippers' preference. • Based on the results, policy implications and suggestions are discussed.