Highlights ► Presents a new framework for real-time crash prediction model building. ► Variables: congestion index in upstream and downstream. ► Variables: speed and occupancy difference between upstream and downstream. ► Method: random multinomial logit (variable selection), Bayesian network (model). ► Performance: 66% crash detection rate with less than 20% false alarm.

Abstract The concept of measuring the crash risk for a very short time window in near future is gaining more practicality due to the recent advancements in the fields of information systems and traffic sensor technology. Although some real-time crash prediction models have already been proposed, they are still primitive in nature and require substantial improvements to be implemented in real-life. This manuscript investigates the major shortcomings of the existing models and offers solutions to overcome them with an improved framework and modeling method. It employs random multinomial logit model to identify the most important predictors as well as the most suitable detector locations to acquire data to build such a model. Afterwards, it applies Bayesian belief net (BBN) to build the real-time crash prediction model. The model has been constructed using high resolution detector data collected from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited, Japan. It has been specifically built for the basic freeway segments and it predicts the chance of formation of a hazardous traffic condition within the next 4–9min for a particular 250 meter long road section. The performance evaluation results reflect that at an average threshold value the model is able to successful classify 66% of the future crashes with a false alarm rate less than 20%.